The DIA 2025 report alarms “Critical and Immediate Nature of Transnational Terrorist Threats” to America.

The report lays out a stark summary of a world growing more dangerous, complex, and technologically volatile. The report begins:

“The United States is confronting an increasingly complex national security threat environment. In addition to traditional military modernization, developments in artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, quantum sciences, microelectronics, space, cyber, and unmanned systems are rapidly transforming the nature of conflict and the global threat landscape. Our adversaries are deepening cooperation, often lending military, diplomatic, and economic support to each other’s conflicts and operations, to circumvent U.S. instruments of power. Transnational criminal organizations and terrorist groups are exploiting geostrategic conditions to evade authorities. Advanced technology also is enabling foreign intelligence services to target our personnel and activities in new ways. The rapid pace of innovation will only accelerate in the coming years, continually generating means for our adversaries to threaten U.S. interests.”

Transnational Criminals and Terrorists

Foreign actors are actively targeting U.S. health, infrastructure, and government systems, while adversarial states seek to undermine American economic and military strength.

Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) and terrorist groups pose immediate and serious threats.

Drug cartels are linked to over 52,000 U.S. deaths from synthetic opioids last year and have facilitated nearly three million illegal migrant arrivals in 2024.

Cyber and intelligence actors are also aggressively targeting U.S. wealth and infrastructure.

Countries such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are mounting direct challenges to U.S. interests through a mix of asymmetric and conventional tactics, promoting alternative systems to counter U.S. influence. Their increasing collaboration enhances the risk of hostilities, and the ATA emphasizes the need for Congress and the public to remain vigilant and informed about these threats.

Illegal Drug Traffickers

Key findings from the report include:

1. Mexico-based TCOs dominate the U.S. drug market and are expected to adapt their smuggling methods in response to strengthened border security.
2. The rise of independent fentanyl producers in Mexico has fragmented the fentanyl trade, fundamentally altering drug trafficking dynamics.
3. Colombian TCOs continue to be the leading cocaine exporters to the U.S., fueling violence and instability in the region.
4. TCOs in Mexico have dramatically escalated violent attacks using improvised explosive devices (IEDs), with nearly 1,600 incidents reported in 2024.
5. China remains the primary supplier of illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals, and Mexican brokers are evading regulations, making it imperative to implement immediate and decisive countermeasures to address these threats effectively.

Transnational Islamic Terrorism

ISIS’s aggressive branches, particularly ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), are a clear and present danger targeting the West, including the United States, through strategic online propaganda aimed at inspiring attacks. Despite significant setbacks such as the loss of its physical caliphate in 2019 and the elimination of key leaders ISIS remains the largest and most formidable Islamic terrorist organization.

Recent incidents, like the New Year’s Day attack in New Orleans and the arrest of an Afghan national planning an Election Day attack, undeniably confirm ISIS’s capacity to incite domestic terrorism within the U.S.

ISIS-K is the most capable branch for executing external operations, and it is explicitly intent on extending its reach into South and Central Asia.

The organization’s mass casualty attacks in Russia and Iran in 2024 showcase its growing influence well beyond South Asia.

1. Al-Qa‘ida is relentlessly pursuing its agenda to target the U.S. through its global affiliates, exploiting the rising anti-Israeli sentiment from the Gaza conflict to incite attacks against both Israel and the U.S.
2. Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has aggressively revived its Inspire guide, which openly encourages attacks against Jewish, U.S., and European targets, providing bomb-making instructions and ideological justifications for violence.
3. Al-Shabaab, al-Qa‘ida’s wealthiest affiliate, is intensifying its focus on Somalia and funneling financial resources to al-Qa‘ida operations, thus gaining access to sophisticated weaponry and escalating threats to U.S. interests.
4. In West Africa, al-Qa‘ida is decisively expanding its territorial reach, posing an unmistakable threat to urban centers in Burkina Faso and Mali, where U.S. personnel are stationed.
5. In Syria, Hurras al-Din is strategically positioning itself to exploit the impending collapse of the Assad regime. Members have been explicitly instructed to remain armed and prepared for ongoing conflicts, despite leadership claims to dissolve the group.
6. In South Asia, particularly Pakistan, terror organizations such as Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) and anti-India groups supported by Pakistan pose significant risks due to their deep-rooted connections to al-Qa‘ida.
7. Additionally, ISIS is aggressively expanding its operations in Africa, with ISIS-Somalia doubling its size and ISIS-West Africa leading in claimed attacks.

Threats from Regrouping of Terror Groups in Afghanistan

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan under the Biden Administration has decisively led to the collapse of the Afghan military and the empowerment of the Taliban, significantly heightening counter-terrorism threats in the region.

Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, along with their South Asian affiliates, are rapidly increasing their operations from Taliban-controlled areas, and groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed are prepared to exploit this situation to launch attacks on India, similar to their actions in the 1990s.

Contrary to claims that the U.S. withdrawal would free up resources to address challenges from China and Russia, the reality is that Washington now faces the urgent necessity of crafting an effective counter-terrorism strategy in South Asia with limited assets. The absence of troops has critically weakened U.S. intelligence capabilities, complicating the monitoring of terrorist activities along the Pakistan border.

Future airstrikes against Afghan targets will be challenging to execute and may ultimately compromise efforts to compel the Taliban to cut ties with al-Qaeda. The Taliban’s alleged commitment to distancing itself from al-Qaeda is dubious at best, given their historical ties and shared ideological objectives.

The release of thousands of prisoners, which included al-Qaeda operatives, and the Haqqani network’s dominance in Kabul’s security only deepen the connection between these groups. This strong relationship poses serious and immediate threats to regional security.

 Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent has openly celebrated the U.S. withdrawal and is pivoting its focus toward India. Changing the name of its magazine from *Nawai Afghan Jihad* (Voice of the Afghan Jihad) to *Nawai Ghazwat-ul-Hind* (Voice of the Conquest of India), indicates a potential shift in focus.

Other terrorist organizations, such as Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh, remain active and are further complicating the security landscape. The likelihood of al-Qaeda enhancing support for its affiliates in South Asia is growing, as evidenced by reports of Ansar al-Islam members traveling to Afghanistan to bolster the Taliban.

Furthermore, the Islamic State is explicitly targeting South Asia for expansion.

India’s primary focus must be on preventing the Taliban from re-establishing a sanctuary for groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, echoing the violent chaos of the 1990s in Kashmir. The current Afghan environment is already providing these groups with essential training and recruitment opportunities, making vigilant monitoring a crucial priority for New Delhi as a means to safeguard national security.

America’s counter-terrorism cooperation with India will be especially important for U.S. interests. New Delhi is Washington’s most capable defense and intelligence partner in South Asia, particularly after the collapse of the Afghan military. Helping India to prevent terrorist attacks will allow New Delhi to focus attention and resources on competing with China.

The United States should also encourage South Asian nations to work closer on counter-terrorism. Most of these options are suboptimal, but after the U.S. withdrawal, Washington has no other option left.

Khalistani Terror threat in North America

Khalistan today is as artificial as Pakistan was in its early days. The concept of Pakistan was crafted by Sir Muhammad Iqbal, Choudhry Rahmat Ali, and Muhammad Ali Jinnah to establish a separate state for Muslims following India’s independence.

The name “Pakistan” itself is a clever anagram and pun, meaning “land of the pure.” Khalistan, similarly, has no historical legitimacy and is exploited by separatists demanding an independent Sikh state in Punjab.

The Khalistani terrorists’ downing of Air India Flight 182 on June 23, 1985, which killed all 329 aboard, underscores their violent agenda.

Today, Khalistani extremism is on the rise in the United States, with activists taking advantage of false asylum claims to build communities, and militants targeting India’s consulate twice in San Francisco and vandalizing Hindu temples from Melville, New York to Sacramento, California.

As Americans, we cannot afford to underestimate the Khalistan movement, just as many analysts failed to recognize the threat posed by Al Qaeda three decades ago. Extremists are now quick to label any criticism of Sikh militancy as “Islamophobic.”

The United States must adopt a firm stance against all forms of extremism, particularly Khalistani extremism, which is dangerously supported by Pakistan. This is not just a theoretical threat; it is a very real and growing concern.

Since the mid-1980s, Canada has faced persistent challenges from Canada-based Khalistani extremists (CBKEs) aiming for an independent Khalistani state. This dangerous faction continues to promote violence. Khalistanis ongoing activities pose serious risks to Canadian national security and enable foreign interference by using Canada as a base for the promotion, fundraising or planning of violence primarily in India.

Khalistani elements have, at times, been involved in the vandalism of Hindu temples and in issuing threats to the local Indian diaspora in Canada.

Both real and perceived Khalistani extremism originating from Canada continues to influence extremist activities across North America.

Fentanyl Terror Threat to the US

During his second term, President Trump firmly addressed cross-border drug trafficking, unequivocally holding Canada partly accountable for the rampant fentanyl crisis. He declared, “The fentanyl coming through Canada is massive,” emphasizing his conviction that neither Canada nor Mexico has done enough to secure their borders against the influx of drugs.

Prior to 2020, Canadian trafficking networks predominantly facilitated the import of fentanyl, but a significant transformation toward domestic production has occurred.

In 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection intercepted approximately 19 kilograms of fentanyl at the northern border, starkly contrasting with nearly 9,600 kilograms seized at the Mexico border.

Canada

Despite imposing some of the strictest regulations under the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act, Canadian law enforcement struggles to keep pace with the rapidly evolving chemical landscape used in fentanyl production.

A staggering 80 percent of the necessary chemicals can be legally sourced from China or acquired within Canada. Authorities have uncovered clandestine labs across the country, particularly in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario.

Notably, in November 2023, law enforcement shut down the largest lab to date, which had the capacity to produce 96 million doses of fentanyl.

In FY 2023, U.S. Customs seized 7.5 metric tons of marijuana at the northern border, while Canadian law enforcement executed several high-profile raids on fentanyl labs, dismantling major networks of opioid producers in operations that underscore the seriousness of the threat.

China

US arch rival China continues to be a critical source of precursor chemicals for fentanyl production. Traffickers have adeptly adjusted their strategies to evade detection. Even without direct shipments from China since September 2019, the crisis is escalating with increasing fentanyl-related overdoses in the U.S.

Addressing the flow of synthetic precursors from China poses formidable challenges. Recently, the U.S. designated China as a “Major Drug Transit or Drug Producing Country,” and it is imperative to pressure Chinese authorities to curb these shipments.

Mexico

Recent data on drug seizures in the United States reveals a striking truth: over 90 percent of heroin consumed in the country originates from Mexico. China stands as the largest supplier of precursor chemicals and equipment essential for manufacturing illicit fentanyl and other synthetic drugs within Mexico. Alarmingly, despite numerous raids on clandestine synthetic drug labs, the Mexican government has often failed to publicly acknowledge the reality of fentanyl production in its territory.

The U.S.-Mexico counterdrug partnership is critically focused on dismantling the financial backbone of transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) responsible for this devastation. The strategy involves cutting off revenue streams to these TCOs through rigorous investigations and prosecutions, while also thwarting the cross-border flow of illicit drugs, chemical precursors, and other dangerous contraband including cash and weapons that perpetuate the violence and conflict between these organizations and Mexican security forces.

U.S. authorities have reached a consensus based on solid evidence. Mexico remains the sole significant source of illicit fentanyl and its analogues trafficked into the United States in 2023.

In this ongoing battle, U.S.-donated canines have proven invaluable, assisting in substantial drug seizures throughout 2023, particularly in targeting fentanyl and its precursors. In just the first nine months of the year, these specially trained dogs aided in the confiscation of 1,698.8 kg of methamphetamine, 6,259 methamphetamine pills, $826,026 in cash, and 244 illicit firearms.

The seizures of fentanyl pills have reached staggering heights this year, with 2,937,218 pills seized from January to September—an extraordinary increase of 3,682 percent compared to the same period in 2022.

However, fentanyl powder seizures have decreased significantly to 30.32 kg, reflecting a 75 percent drop.

While most clandestine lab seizures have occurred in the Pacific coast state of Sinaloa, it’s important to note that the outsourcing production model and fragmented supply chains for illicit production minimize the overall impact of any single seizure.

Thus, Mexico remains a pivotal source and transit country for illicit drugs, including the synthetic opioids fueling this ongoing crisis.

Addressing this issue with persistent and collaborative efforts is essential to combat the pervasive threat of synthetic drugs and restore safety and security

Action is needed now to confront this escalating threat.

Afghanistan-Pakistan Nexus

Historically, Afghanistan has been a significant producer of opium and heroin, with Pakistan serving as a major trafficking route. Afghan opiates primarily flow to Europe, but some also reach the US via the “southern route” through Pakistan and Nigeria. While heroin is the primary focus of the Afghanistan-Pakistan drug trade to the US, there are concerns about the potential for synthetic opioids like fentanyl to emerge in the region. Pakistan saw an increase in fentanyl seizures in the past year. The illicit drug trade in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas is intertwined with other security and stability challenges in the region. 

Arthur Kapoor, Chairman of the American Hindu Jewish Congress, has rightly expressed alarm about unmanned systems posing threats to U.S. homeland security, especially as these technologies converge with AI and 5G capabilities.

Challenges Ahead

Transnational criminals are exploiting systemic corruption and advanced technologies to expand their illegal operations, making them increasingly resilient against law enforcement efforts. They are actively defrauding U.S. citizens and laundering billions through domestic and international financial institutions, often outsourcing their money laundering activities to individuals in legal professions.

Cybercriminals are aggressively targeting inadequately protected U.S. institutions, including healthcare systems and municipal governments, creating significant threats to both our economy and public safety. In mid-2024, ransomware attacks struck the largest payment processor in the healthcare sector, disrupting critical services and forcing ambulances to divert patients, highlighting the urgent vulnerabilities we face.

Moreover, our water infrastructure has emerged as a prime target for cyberattacks. In October 2024, multiple water utilities were compromised, likely inspired by the actions of Russian and Iranian actors in previous incidents.

This disturbing trend underscores the necessity for robust cybersecurity measures.

In addition, human traffickers are heinously exploiting vulnerable populations by luring them with deceptive promises of employment, then coercing them into labor and sex trafficking. Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are particularly infamous for targeting migrants on their journey to the U.S., subjugating them to kidnapping, forced labor, and debt bondage.

Since January 2025, the number of migrants attempting to enter the U.S. has dramatically decreased, primarily due to fortified border security. Law enforcement encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border fell by 14 percent in 2024, with apprehensions in January 2025 plummeting by 85 percent compared to the previous year.

Guatemalan, Mexican, and Venezuelan nationals comprise the majority of those encountered, and changes in immigration laws in transit countries such as Nicaragua’s removal of visa requirements for travellers can swiftly trigger surges in migration toward the U.S.

We must confront these pressing issues with urgency and effectiveness. The time for decisive action is now; we must remain vigilant, proactive, and united in addressing these formidable challenges.

Written By
Ankush Bhandari, Policy Director for AHJC